Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
