A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
